(RepublicanReport.org) – On May 30, a Manhattan jury returned with a verdict in the first of four criminal trials against former President Donald Trump. The group unanimously found him guilty on all 34 charges of falsifying business records. The defendant will be sentenced on July 11, and it’s unclear when his next criminal trial will begin. Still, one top data analyst doesn’t see Trump’s legal woes affecting his polling numbers.
What Did the Analyst Say?
CNN’s top analyst Harry Enten said the Manhattan prosecution of Trump hadn’t changed voter’s minds — yet. However, his analysis came before the verdict. It’s unclear if Enten’s view — or the voters — will change now that the former president is a convicted felon.
In his analysis, the data expert said only 35% believed the charges in Manhattan were serious, a 5% drop from a previous survey. He said the reason there hasn’t been a change in approval or polling numbers regarding Trump is because people have bigger problems to worry about. Enten doesn’t believe everyday Americans are paying attention to the trial like “real news junkies” are.
According to the polling Enten referenced, only 42% of those surveyed were following the Trump trials. That percentage was the lowest among other issues, including the economy, immigration, election integrity, and abortion. The analyst said citizens are simply “tuned out of the conversation.” CNN reported that Trump was one point ahead of Biden in the polls at the beginning of the trial and remained there as of May 29 — one day before the verdict.
Polling and Voters
Average polling reported by FiveThirtyEight shows Trump’s favorability rating at 41.6%, based on polling through May 28. It’s too early to tell what kind of impact — if any — the conclusion of the trial and Trump’s criminal status will have on his rating.
On that same day, the source showed the former president ahead of President Joe Biden by 1.7% in national polling. Again, those numbers don’t reflect the verdict. Still, if people aren’t paying attention to the trial at all, it’s unclear if the verdict will have any impact on the numbers.
An NPR/PBS, NewsHour/Marist poll showed that about 67% of those surveyed said a guilty verdict wouldn’t affect their vote, and 76% said the same about a not-guilty verdict. About 17% said a guilty verdict could steer them away from Trump. While that number appears small, any decline could have a large impact in a head-to-head race for the White House. The real test will be in November at the ballot box.
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