Trump Suffers Polling Blow Among Independents

( – Donald Trump has consistently led Joe Biden in most national polls since he announced his campaign in November 2022. He’s currently beating the president by 1.6 points, 46.6% to 44.8%, in RealClearPolitics’ polling average as of February 2. However, Biden has seen some upward movement and has come out on top in a few recent polls.

Hardline Democrats and Republicans don’t tend to shift much in their opinions regarding their respective parties’ nominees (presumptive or otherwise). As a result, earning the support of independent voters is critical to winning the presidency.

Unfortunately, a recent poll indicated that independents may be turning their backs on the former president.

Trump Suffers Recent Polling Blow Among Independent Voters

On January 31, Quinnipiac University released the results of its latest poll on potential 2024 matchups. The survey showed that Biden held a six-point lead over Trump, 50% to 44%, among registered voters in a hypothetical one-on-one match. That lead indicated a significant shift from the university’s mid-December poll that showed the two candidates in a statistical tie, with Biden receiving the support of 47% of the survey’s participants and Trump getting 46%.

Alarmingly, at least for Trump, Biden maintained an eight-point lead over the former president among independent voters, 52% to 40%. Biden also fared better with registered Democrats (96% to 2%) than Trump did with Republicans (91% to 76%).

Trump continued to dominate the polling results among male voters, receiving the support of 53%, as opposed to Biden’s 42%. Those figures showed a nominal shift since December, when participants split 51% to 41%.

However, Biden is widening the gap with women. In December, he received the support of 53%, and Trump picked up 41%. But, in the latest poll, the split shifted in Biden’s favor by five points while Trump lost five, making the new split 58% to 36%.

Tim Malloy, a polling analyst with Quinnipiac, advised interested parties to “keep an eye” on Biden’s possible rise among females in future polls. He said their increased support over the last few weeks has given Biden “a modest lead” in a one-on-one match.

The importance of independent voters diminishes some in a hypothetical five-person race. Biden received the support of 39% of survey participants to Trump’s 37% — another statistical tie. Independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West received the support of 14% and 3%, respectively. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received a paltry 2%.

Curiously, Nikki Haley beat Biden in a hypothetical one-on-one match. She received the support of 47% of survey participants to Biden’s 42%. She also bested the president among independents by a margin of six points, 53% to 37%.

Biden beat Haley 36% to 29% in a hypothetical five-person race. Kennedy received 21%, West 3%, and Stein got only 2%.

Copyright 2024,