Why Do Chinese Officials Favor Kamala Harris in U.S.-China Relations?

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Chinese officials show a slight preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in future U.S.-China relations, viewing her as a more predictable leader despite expectations of continued tension.

At a Glance

  • Chinese officials marginally prefer Harris over Trump for U.S.-China relations
  • Harris is seen as likely to continue Biden’s policies, offering more predictability
  • Both candidates are expected to maintain a tough stance on China
  • Trump’s unpredictability and emotional approach are viewed as potential risks
  • U.S.-China relations are anticipated to remain strained regardless of the election outcome

Chinese Perspectives on U.S. Presidential Candidates

As the U.S. presidential race heats up, Chinese officials and analysts are closely examining the potential impacts of a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency on U.S.-China relations. While both candidates are expected to maintain a tough stance on China, there appears to be a slight preference for Harris among Chinese officials.

The primary reason for this modest preference lies in the perceived predictability of Harris’s approach. Chinese officials anticipate that she would largely continue the policies established by the Biden administration, which, while strict, offer a level of consistency that Beijing finds more manageable.

Continuity vs. Unpredictability

Harris is viewed as likely to maintain the current administration’s approach to China, which some Chinese analysts characterize as “Trumpist without Trump.” This perspective is reflected in comments by Wang Yiwei, a professor of international studies at Renmin University in Beijing.

“Harris will continue Biden’s policies” on China, says Wang Yiwei, a professor of international studies at Renmin University in Beijing. What are Biden’s policies? He is a “Trumpist without the Trump” – Wang Yiwei

In contrast, Trump’s approach is seen as more volatile and potentially disruptive. His previous term was marked by unpredictability and emotional decision-making, which heightened tensions between the two nations. This sentiment is echoed by Jia Qingguo, a prominent Chinese academic.

“We already had four years of experience with Donald Trump, and Donald Trump is a very unique character. He’s not a normal politician. He’s not even a normal businessman.” – Jia Qingguo

Bipartisan Consensus on China Policy

Despite the preference for Harris’s predictability, Chinese strategists harbor few illusions about a significant shift in U.S. policy toward China. There is a broad bipartisan consensus in Washington on maintaining a hawkish stance towards Beijing, regardless of which party controls the White House.

“Chinese strategists hold few illusions that US policy toward China might change course over the next decade … they assume that whoever is elected in November 2024 will continue to prioritize strategic competition and even containment in Washington’s approach to Beijing.” – Wang Jisi, Hu Ran and Zhao Jianwei

This assessment underscores the expectation that U.S.-China relations will remain strained, with both Harris and Trump likely to pursue policies of strategic competition and potential containment. However, the nature and intensity of this competition may vary depending on who occupies the Oval Office.

Key Issues in U.S.-China Relations

Several critical issues are likely to shape U.S.-China relations under either a Harris or Trump administration. These include trade policies, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and climate cooperation. Harris is expected to maintain high tariffs on Chinese imports, continuing the trade war initiated by Trump. On Taiwan, both candidates are likely to support the island’s self-defense capabilities, though their approaches may differ.

Climate policy cooperation remains uncertain, with China potentially focusing more on subnational collaboration due to concerns about national-level diplomacy under a potential Trump presidency. The South China Sea will continue to be an area of tension, given U.S. interests in maintaining stability in this crucial maritime trade route.

Preparing for Either Outcome

As the U.S. election approaches, China is preparing for either scenario. Under a Harris presidency, China may need to reassess its strategies, balancing assertive nationalism with economic resilience. In the event of a Trump victory, Chinese officials are likely to analyze his foreign policy principles and strategies to adapt to potential unpredictability and aggressive tactics.

“China will need to reassess its strategies, engaging in more strategic negotiations while balancing its assertive nationalism with economic resilience due to her anticipated shift in approach” – Zhou

Ultimately, while Chinese officials may slightly prefer Harris for her predictability, they are bracing for continued challenges in U.S.-China relations regardless of the election outcome. The focus remains on navigating these challenges while protecting China’s interests in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.

Sources:

  1. Taiwan and trade: how China sees its future with the US after the election
  2. Zhou Explores How China Might React to U.S. Foreign Policy in the Post-Election Years
  3. Who does China’s president want to win the U.S. election?