Trump Edges Out Harris in Crucial 2024 Election Projections

Donald Trump surges ahead of Kamala Harris in national polls, securing a narrow lead in key battleground states as the 2024 U.S. presidential race intensifies.

At a Glance

Trump leads Harris by 0.1 points in the RealClearPolitics national average
Trump is ahead in all seven key battleground states according to RealClearPolitics
Other forecasters show Harris with a national lead but Trump favored to win the Electoral College
State polls in battleground states remain tight, with no candidate holding a significant lead
Both candidates can likely count on at least 200 electoral votes but need 270 to win

Trump Takes the Lead in National Polls

In a significant shift in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, former President Donald Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris in national polling averages. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump now leads Harris by a razor-thin margin of 0.1 points, with Trump at 48.4% and Harris at 48.3%. This marks the first time Trump has surpassed Harris in the national average since she became the Democratic Party’s 2024 nominee.

The Wall Street Journal’s recent poll further solidifies Trump’s lead, showing him ahead of Harris by 47% to 45%. This shift in voter preferences represents a pivotal moment in the election race, as Harris’s previous lead has steadily diminished since mid-August.

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Battleground States: Trump’s Key Advantage

Trump’s edge becomes even more pronounced in key battleground states, a crucial advantage that could significantly influence the Electoral College outcome. RealClearPolitics shows Trump leading Harris in all seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This strong performance in swing states positions Trump favorably in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency.

“The closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close.” – G. Elliott Morris

While some forecasts still show Harris with a national lead, the battleground state advantage for Trump suggests he may be the slight favorite to win through the Electoral College. This echoes the 2016 election scenario, where the popular vote and Electoral College results diverged.

A Race Too Close to Call

Despite Trump’s recent gains, the 2024 presidential election remains highly competitive. Various polls and forecasts paint a picture of a race that’s too close to call. FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, for instance, gives Trump a 54% chance of winning, while their national average shows Harris leading by 1.4 points. Similarly, Decision Desk HQ/The Hill has Harris ahead by 0.6 points but gives Trump a 53% chance of winning.

The volatility of the race is further underscored by conflicting poll results. While some surveys show Trump gaining ground, others indicate Harris maintaining a slight edge. An ABC/Ipsos poll shows Harris leading Trump 51%-47%, and a CBS/YouGov survey puts her up 50%-49%. Meanwhile, an Emerson College Polling survey has the candidates tied at 49%.

As the election draws nearer, both campaigns are intensifying their efforts to win over undecided voters in key states. With the race this tight, every vote in battleground states could prove crucial in determining the next occupant of the White House.